Demographic Cliff

[Anchor Lead]

Korea is facing a demographic cliff earlier than expected. A natural decline in population has already started this year, and Korea's population is projected to fall to half of what it is today by 2098. The situation has worsened much faster than the projection made three years ago.

[Pkg]

It's projected that new births will be outnumbered by deaths starting this year. The natural reduction in population started 10 years earlier than what was projected 3 years ago, that the population would start shrinking in 2029. The decline can be blamed on Korea's seriously low birthrate with a total fertility rate of not even one. This is why this demographic forecast was announced in just three years instead of the usual five.

[Soundbite] Kim Jin(Vital Statistics Division, Statistics Korea) : "We announced a special estimate this year because the birthrate is expected to fall lower than our most pessimistic projection."

The total population will remain steady for the time being, thanks to the influx of foreigners. But even their numbers will decline in 10 year's time, putting Korea's total population below the 40 million mark by 2067. Korea's productive population, which has already been falling, will shrink even faster at an average rate of 250,000 persons per year for the next decade. In 2065, the segment of productive population will be smaller than that of senior citizens 65 and older. That means about 46% of the population will have to support the entire population. This projection is based on the assumption that the total fertility rate would rise to 1.27 after the year 2040. As the nation races toward a demographic cliff, the government said a multi-ministry organization will be set up by next month and present countermeasures to the population change before July.