Political landscape after the last two impeachment votes

[Anchor]

This is the third time in constitutional history that the National Assembly is reporting a presidential impeachment motion.

The previous two were in 2004 for former President Roh Moo-hyun and in 2016 for former President Park Geun-hye.

Let's take a look back at the processing and subsequent political situations during those times. Moon Ye-seul reports.

[Report]

The previous two impeachment motions were proposed in 2004 and 2016, respectively.

The impeachment motion against former President Roh Moo-hyun was based on political neutrality, while the motion against former President Park Geun-hye was triggered by the corruption scandal.

In both instances, the ruling party had fewer seats than the opposition, with 47 seats in 2004 and 128 seats in 2016.

In 2004, after a rough physical confrontation, the impeachment motion was passed, but due to strong opposition sentiment and the Constitutional Court's dismissal of the impeachment, a backlash ensued, leading to a majority victory for the ruling party in the subsequent general election.

In the 2016 impeachment vote, ruling party members cast more votes in favor than the opposition had expected.

Analysts suggest that the persuasion efforts by the Democratic Party and the anti-Park faction towards the pro-Park faction, along with the ongoing candlelight vigils, created public pressure that influenced the outcome.

This time, the National Assembly has 192 opposition seats.

Although the opposition holds more seats is greater than in the previous two instances, it remains uncertain whether more than 8 votes, which the opposition needs, will defect from the ruling party, as the ruling party has firmly established a 'no' stance on impeachment.

The outcome will vary significantly depending on the actions of pro-Han faction following Representative Han Dong-hoon's changed stance and the support from younger lawmakers.

[Ahn Cheol-soo/People Power Party Member: "I urge the president to reveal his resignation plan. Otherwise, I must state that I will have no choice but to support the impeachment motion."]

[Cho Kyoung-tae/People Power Party Member: "This is a choice that politicians must make: to stand with the people or to become accomplices of the forces that declared martial law."]

If the impeachment motion is passed, the president's duties will be suspended, and the Prime Minister will act in his stead.

The Constitutional Court must complete the impeachment proceedings within 180 days, but in the last two impeachments, they were concluded in 63 days and 91 days, respectively.

Since this impeachment is also occurring exactly 8 years later, if it follows a similar pattern, a result may be expected around next spring.

Between the passing of the impeachment motion against former President Park and the Constitutional Court's ruling, a special investigation into the corruption scandal and a National Assembly investigation were conducted simultaneously.

This time, any new revelations arising as the prosecution, police, and the Corruption Investigation Office are accelerating their investigations could impact the impeachment ruling.

Conversely, there is also a possibility that the impeachment motion could be rejected in the National Assembly vote tomorrow (12.7).

In this case, the opposition plans to repeatedly propose the impeachment motion until it is passed.

While it is uncertain whether the impeachment motion will pass in the National Assembly tomorrow, our constitution mandates that a presidential election must be held within 60 days in the event of a presidential vacancy.

This is KBS News, Moon Ye-seul.