[Poll] Moderates crucial in election

[Anchor]

Both parties are focusing on consolidating their support bases, but there is consensus that the votes of the moderate electorate will ultimately determine the outcome.

Ahead of the early presidential election, KBS conducted a public opinion poll, and today (4.13) we will deliver the analysis results of the moderate electorate, which accounts for one-third of all respondents.

Kim Min-hyuk reports.

[Report]

Suitability for the next presidential candidate.

Among all respondents, former representative Lee Jae-myung is leading, while former Minister Kim Moon-soo is ahead of former Mayor Hong Joon-pyo and former representative Han Dong-hoon outside the margin of error.

When limited to the moderate electorate, the gap narrows, with former Minister Kim, former Mayor Hong, and former representative Han falling within the margin of error.

In terms of suitability for the People Power Party candidates, following former Minister Kim, Yoo Seong-min, Hong Joon-pyo, and Han Dong-hoon were within the margin of error, but among the moderate electorate, the order changes to Yoo Seong-min, followed by former Minister Kim, former Mayor Hong, and former representative Han within the margin of error.

In the case of the Democratic Party, former representative Lee is overwhelmingly ahead of Governor Kim Dong-yeon and former Governor Kim Kyung-soo, and the sentiment of the moderate electorate is not significantly different.

What about in a hypothetical two-way match?

In the scenario of Lee Jae-myung versus Kim Moon-soo, Lee Jae-myung has 48% and Kim Moon-soo has 31%, but among the moderate electorate, the gap widens to over 30 percentage points.

In the scenario of Lee Jae-myung versus Hong Joon-pyo, it is 47% to 31%, but among the moderate electorate, it changes to 50% to 25%, again widening the gap, while in the scenario of Lee Jae-myung versus Han Dong-hoon, it is 47% to 24%, with a similar gap of 49% to 23% among the moderate electorate.

[Kim Chun-seok/Head of Public Opinion Division, Hankook Research: "During the martial law and impeachment phases, the conservative bloc shifted further to the right. That trend continues, making it difficult to expand support among moderates."]

There is growing interest in where the support base of Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min will go.

In the People Power Party's first primary round, only four candidates will advance. Both Yoo and Oh were polling within the margin of error, with 11% and 5% support respectively, placing them within the potential winning range.

Their appeal among moderate and metropolitan voters could be a key variable shaping the party's nomination race.

KBS News, Kim Min-hyuk.