Total fertility rate projected at 0.75

[Anchor]

We will deliver a special report on the super-aged society over the next three days starting today (1.24).

As the birth rate declines, the proportion of elderly people increases, so there is a close relationship between birth rates and aging.

However, the total fertility rate, which had been declining since 2015, is expected to rebound for the first time last year to 0.75.

Reporter Jeong Yeon-wook has investigated whether this upward trend can be sustained.

[Report]

The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.

Since 2015, it has been decreasing sharply every year, recording an all-time low of 0.72 in 2023.

The government predicts that the total fertility rate for last year, once compiled, will be 0.75, higher than initially expected.

If this happens, it will mark a rebound after nine years.

[Joo Hyung-hwan/Vice Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy: "The cumulative number of births from January to November is 3% higher than the previous year, so a rebound in the number of births after nine years is now certain."]

Recently, the government announced that the number of registered births last year was over 242,000, an increase of over 7,000 compared to a year earlier.

This also confirms an upward trend for the first time in nine years.

In the face of the population cliff crisis, local governments are implementing birth support measures, and notably, the number of marriages, which had been declining since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, began to increase in 2023.

It is estimated that this trend continued last year as well.

There are analyses suggesting that the rebound in the birth rate last year is likely a temporary phenomenon, given that the number of marriages, a leading indicator of births, has increased.

[Lee Sang-rim/Population Policy Research Center, Seoul National University: "I think the phase of more children being born will last for about 2 to 3 years, at least 2 years. However, it remains uncertain whether this is truly due to improvements in our environment leading to a rise in the birth rate, or whether the desire to have children has genuinely increased."]

The government predicts that as the ultra-low birth rate trend continues, the pace of aging will accelerate, and in 20 years, the proportion of elderly people is expected to exceed 37%.

KBS News, Jeong Yeon-wook.