Presidential election uncertainty

[Anchor]

As the impeachment trial of President Yoon is underway, political attention is focused on the possibility of an early presidential election.

In line with this, there is also interest in when the appellate court's decision regarding Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung's election law case will be announced.

These two variables are complicating the calculations within the political arena.

Let's take a closer look with political reporter Lee Yejin.

Welcome, reporter Lee.

First, there was the first hearing of the appellate trial for Leader Lee Jae-myung yesterday (1.23). Can we estimate when the verdict might be announced?

[Reporter]

Yes, according to election law, the appellate trial must conclude within three months after the first trial verdict.

This means the result must be announced before Feb. 15, but since the first hearing was held yesterday, it is realistically impossible.

However, the appellate court has set a date, stating, "If there are no special circumstances, we will hold the decision hearing on Feb. 26."

Additionally, the court has stated that it will not accept any new cases aside from Leader Lee's case.

This reiterates their commitment to expedite the trial process.

Typically, a verdict is announced within a month after the decision hearing, so the appellate trial result is expected to come out as early as mid-March.

[Anchor]

Yes, while it is not a final ruling, if the appellate trial results in a loss of parliamentary seat like the first trial, it would be a significant blow, wouldn't it?

[Reporter]

Yes, Leader Lee received a sentence of one year in prison with a two-year probation in the first trial for the election law case.

If the second and third trials, including the Supreme Court, proceed quickly, a final ruling could potentially be reached as early as June.

Whether the first trial result is upheld or when a final ruling is made will be a major variable for Leader Lee, who is preparing for the next presidential election.

[Anchor]

Yes, while the outcome of Leader Lee's trial is important, the most crucial factor is when the result of President Yoon's impeachment trial will be announced and what the conclusion will be, isn't it?

[Reporter]

President Yoon is personally defending himself in the trial, and public opinion is fluctuating, making it difficult to predict how this will affect the outcome.

However, there is a general consensus that the Constitutional Court will reach a conclusion before Apr. 18.

The reason Apr. 18 is significant is that it is the last day of the terms for Constitutional Court Justices Moon Hyung-bae and Lee Mi-son.

Currently, the Constitutional Court operates with eight justices, so if these two justices step down, only six justices will remain, which could lead to significant legal and political controversy regarding the decision on the impeachment trial.

[Anchor]

Depending on the outcome, the presidential election schedule will be determined, right?

[Reporter]

Yes, if the impeachment is upheld and President Yoon is removed from office, a presidential election must be held within 60 days, meaning it would take place before June 18.

Of course, if the impeachment motion is dismissed, President Yoon will immediately return to his duties, and the next presidential election will be held in 2027 when President Yoon's term ends.

[Anchor]

Yes, of course, this is all hypothetical at this point.

However, as the possibility of an early presidential election continues to be discussed, the movements of potential candidates are also becoming more active, right?

Let's start with the ruling party.

[Reporter]

Yes, a notable point in recent opinion polls is the rising support for Minister of Labor Kim Moon-soo.

However, Minister Kim is currently a government official and has not publicly stated his intention to run for president.

In fact, the ruling party is not in an atmosphere where discussions about an early presidential election can be easily entertained.

This is because President Yoon is still in office and is a party member.

However, figures such as Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, former representative Han Dong-hoon, and former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min, as well as Lee Jun-seok from the Reform Party, which can be seen as part of the broader conservative camp, have expressed their intentions to run for president, either directly or indirectly.

[Anchor]

What about the opposition? Although Leader Lee Jae-myung still holds a dominant position.

[Reporter]

Yes, the opposition, including the Democratic Party, is essentially a one-man show led by Leader Lee Jae-myung.

However, despite the recent state of emergency and the impeachment trial of President Yoon, Leader Lee's approval ratings have stagnated, and particularly, some polls have shown lower ratings than those for the Democratic Party, leading him to express a willingness to humbly accept the low support as public sentiment.

However, with similar poll results showing responses for both regime change and regime extension, the atmosphere within the opposition is not very favorable.

[Anchor]

Perhaps that's why the non-mainstream faction seems to be moving these days.

[Reporter]

Yes, the non-mainstream faction is gradually becoming active.

Former Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok criticized the one-man system centered around Leader Lee, and former Gyeongnam Governor Kim Kyung-soo held a founding event for the non-mainstream think tank yesterday, effectively starting public activities aimed at the presidential election.

Former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum and Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon are also hastening preparations to play a role in the presidential election.

In the opposition, the rising momentum of National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik as a potential candidate for the next presidential election is noticeable, but due to his current position as Speaker, he is hesitant to discuss running for president.

[Anchor]

Thank you, reporter Lee.